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The Management Tip of the Day from Harvard Business Review


THE MANAGEMENT TIP OF THE DAY: Harvard Business Review

January 23, 2017

Beware the Overfit Trap in Data Analysis

It can be exciting when your data analysis suggests a surprising or counterintuitive prediction. But the result might be due to overfitting, which occurs when a statistical model describes random noise rather than the underlying relationship you need to capture. You can guard against this trap by keeping your analysis simple. Be on guard against spurious correlations, and look for relationships that measure important effects related to clear, logical hypotheses. Test for overfitting by randomly dividing the data into a training set, with which you’ll estimate the model, and a validation set, with which you’ll test the accuracy of the model’s predictions. An overfit model might be great at making predictions within the training set but raise warning flags by performing poorly in the validation set. You might also consider alternative narratives: Is there another story you could tell with the same data? If so, you cannot be confident that the relationship you have uncovered is the right — or only — one.

Adapted from the HBR Guide to Data Analytics Basics for Managers


The Effective Executive

In his 65-year consulting career, F. Drucker, widely regarded as the father of modern management, identified eight practices that can make any executive successful. In his seminal HBR article, The Effective Executive, he argued that leadership is not about charisma or extroversion. It’s about these practices: Effective executives ask, “What needs to be done?” They also ask, “What is right for the enterprise?” They develop action plans. They take responsibility for decisions. They take responsibility for communicating. They focus on opportunities rather than problems. And they think and say “we” rather than “I.”

This new book, part of the Harvard Business Review Classics series, offers you the opportunity to make Drucker’s inspiring HBR article a part of your management library.

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Teams at Work: Emotional Intelligence (with Facilitator’s Guide)

Emotional intelligence (EI) is a critical professional and leadership skill that encompasses everything from regulating one's own moods and emotions to managing social interactions with others. This new Teams at Work toolkit enables you to walk your team through the importance and fundamental components of EI and provides them with several specific techniques for implementing emotional self-awareness and social intelligence in the workplace. It includes: (1) 45 minutes of Harvard Business Review materials for your team to read and listen to; (2) a facilitator’s guide that will allow you to lead a 1-hour discussion around the concepts; and (3) a quiz to help your team members gauge their own EI strengths. Use this collection of Harvard Business Review content to help your team build their emotional intelligence—together.

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